Paul Graham argues that Microsoft is dead:

No one is even afraid of Microsoft anymore. They still make a lot of money—so does IBM, for that matter. But they're not dangerous.
The best evidence that Graham is right is that Bill Gates apparently finds running Microsoft less interesting than helping poor people.

UPDATE: Microsoft's Don Dodge replies that the company is very much alive. Graham clarifies what he meant:
Technology companies are projectiles. And because of that you can call them dead long before any problems show up on the balance sheet.